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Bay Area Real Estate Markets Survey




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From Billionaires in Mansions
to Flippers & Fixer Uppers

Market Prices, Conditions & Trends
in the San Francisco Bay Area

73,000 Bay Area home sales worth $76 billion
were reported to MLS over the past 12 months

Comparative home values, fantastic appreciation rates, costly luxury
home markets, housing affordability, economic and demographic
influences, seasonality, poverty & other market conditions and trends

June 2018 Report

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Bay Area Home Value Appreciation Rates
since 2011 (the post-crash bottom of the market)

Bay Area Home Appreciation Rates


The county and city appreciation percentages in the chart above were calculated by averaging changes in both median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. We also incorporated S&P Case-Shiller SF metro area appreciation calculations based upon its algorithm breaking the market into thirds by price segment. Each city and county includes within itself a wide variety of individual real estate markets of different price segments and varying dynamics, so these percentages are broad generalities. How they apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

IMPORTANT NOTE: As with stock market (or bitcoin) performance, comparative appreciation rates in housing markets vary wildly depending on the exact start and end dates of the analysis. For example, if we calculated median sales price appreciation from 2006/2007 (previous peak prices) to 2018 YTD, (instead of from 2011, the last bottom of the market), SF comes in at 82%, Oakland at 36%, Marin at 31.5% and Sonoma at 12%.


Bay Area Median Home Price Trends
since 1990

Bay Area County Median Home Price Trends


Major Factors in Bay Area Appreciation


The appreciation rate and market dynamics of each individual Bay Area market since 2011 has each been affected by a mix of different factors - to greater or lesser degrees:

1) Being at the center of the high-tech boom (San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara); 2) proximity to the center counties, but with significantly lower housing costs (Alameda County and especially Oakland are prime examples): 3) being affected to an outsized degree by subprime financing and the 2008-2011 distressed-property price crash (Oakland and many outlying, less expensive areas); 4) relative affordability: In recent years, as home prices soared, the highest pressure of buyer demand moved to less costly markets within and between counties; 5) substantially increased supply due to new construction (SF condo market); 6) increases in the average size of homes sold (+13% in SF); and 6) the general national economic recovery: U.S. home prices have appreciated by about 49% since hitting bottom in 2011.

This chart illustrates the dynamics of the enormous appreciation rate in Oakland since 2011, following its drastic crash in prices during the market recession: Chart: Oakland median price changes. And this chart based on Case-Shiller data illuminates the vast differences in the magnitude of bubbles, crashes and recoveries of different home price tiers: Chart: Appreciation Trends by Price Segment.

Generally speaking, the most affluent neighborhoods, with the most expensive homes, have appreciated less on a percentage basis (but more on a dollar-increase basis) than less expensive neighborhoods during this period. Especially over the past 2-3 years, the appreciation rates of more affordable homes have accelerated most quickly. This dynamic also occurred in the latter period of the last housing boom.

There were sometimes very specific local factors, such as the terrible fires in Sonoma, or the opening of the new Apple headquarters building, which played roles in significantly boosting home prices in their locales.


Bay Area Average Price per Square Foot Values

SF Bay Area Average Dollar per Square Foot values


San Francisco Median Price Trends
since 1993

Within SF, appreciation rates have diverged between houses
and condos due to classic supply and demand factors.

SF Median house and condo price appreciation

Many more analyses specific to San Francisco County and its neighborhood markets can be found here: San Francisco Market Report


Bay Area Median Condo Prices
Year-over-year changes

Condos are the distinctly more affordable home purchase option, though that is less true in San Francisco than in other counties. Indeed, overall in the city, condos sell at higher price per square foot values than houses, but, of course, average condo size is much less.


Bay Area condo markets and prices


The high-tech boom has led to a considerable divergence between Bay Area and national home price appreciation rates, as illustrated in this graph based on Case-Shiller data: Long-Term Home Price Appreciation Trends


Fixer-Uppers: Median Sales Prices

Bay Area Fixer Upper Prices

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Bay Area Luxury Home Markets

There are luxury home neighborhoods and enclaves throughout the Bay Area, but the fabulous creation of new wealth has supercharged Silicon Valley high-end real estate sales above all others.


Bay Area luxury home markets by county


How much luxury home one gets for the money varies considerably between counties. On a dollar per square foot basis, the highest values are found in San Francisco luxury condos, often high-rise units with utterly spectacular views.

SF Bay Area luxury home values by county

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Bay Area Real Estate Market Dynamics

Sales by Price Segment

These next 2 charts break out house and condo sales in the 9-county Bay Area by price segment. (We roughly estimate another 10 to 12% of such home sales were not reported to MLS, and not included below.)


Bay Area house sales by price

Bay Area condo sales by price


Respective Market Sizes

By unit sales volume, the Bay Area is utterly dominated
by Santa Clara, Alameda & Contra Costa Counties.

SF Bay Area House and Condo Sales by County


San Francisco & San Mateo close the gap in dollar
volume sales due to their high home prices.

Bay Area dollar volume home sales by county


The above chart tracks dollar volume sales for houses, duets, condos, co-ops, TICs and 2-4 unit residential buildings. If the sales of larger multi-unit residential buildings and commercial buildings were included, sales volumes would soar for some counties. For example, in San Francisco, 74% of all transfer taxes collected in 2017 related to property sales of $10m+, the vast majority of which were larger apartment buildings and commercial properties.



Home and Lot Sizes

As the economy recovered from the recession, people began to buy larger houses, which is one factor in increasing median home sales prices. The average size of houses sold in San Francisco increased 13% over the period.

Bay Area Average House Sizes

Bay Area median home lot sizes by county


Homeownership & Tenant-Occupancy Percentages

Of the 9 Bay Area counties, only San Francisco has a higher percentage of renters than of homeowners (though certain cities of other counties do as well).


SF Bay Area homeownership rates


On the issue of rent and eviction controls, people have a tendency to vote their own financial interests (and not according to their opinions on macro-economic housing-supply theory): Tenants for controls, and landlords and homeowners (potential landlords) against them. This is why strong rent control measures are typically found only in CA cities with majority tenant populations, such as SF, Oakland, Berkeley and Santa Monica. Upwardly spiraling rents, as illustrated in the below chart, has made this one of the most intense political issues of the day, to be voted on at the ballot in November.



Bay Area Rent Trends

The Bay Area has the highest rents of any metro area in the nation.

Bay Area rents historical trends


Supply, Demand & Market Seasonality

Most Bay Area markets will now start to transition from the more heated spring sales season to the less active summer season. Part of this dynamic is a marked increase in price reductions. Seasonal trends do vary by county: Sonoma, for example, has a strong second-home market which can peak in mid-summer. San Francisco and Marin typically see dramatic spikes in sales during the short autumn selling season. All markets head into big slowdowns for the mid-winter holidays, before waking up and beginning the cycle again in the new year.


Bay Area Active Listings historical trend

Bay Area Real Estate Seasonality


Price Reductions

As the spring market ends, the major period
for listings reducing their asking prices begins.

Bay Area price reductions historical trend


Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

MSI levels, indicators of demand vs. supply, have been bumping
against all-time lows virtually throughout the Bay Area.

Bay Area months supply of inventory by county

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Bay Area Population & Housing Statistics

Bay Area population by county

Bay Area Population Growth since 1969

Bay Area Square Miles by County

Bay Area population density by county

Our fascinating report on area demographics is here: San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics. We guarantee you will learn interesting things you never knew before.



SF Metro Area: Annual Population Growth since 2010
Net Domestic & Foreign Migration plus Births

SF Bay Area Migration-Population-Jobs


Bay Area Housing Statistics

In recent years, some counties have embraced growth in housing supply, and others have resisted it. (For better or worse, no county has resisted growth more than Marin.) Any way you slice it, housing supply has not come close to keeping pace with the increase in population, a major factor in our real estate markets.





Bay Area Housing Construction since 1967

Bay Area Housing Construction by County


According to a recent report by Turner & Townsend, San Francisco has the second highest construction costs in the world, behind only New York, and these costs continue to accelerate due to a number of factors: land and labor costs; the long planning, approval & permitting process; political opposition to growth; and affordable housing requirements.


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Income, Poverty & Housing Affordability

SF bay area median household income increases

Bay Area Median Household Income by County


According to the calculations in the first chart above by the CA Association of Realtors, Bay Area median household income has increased by 23% since 2015, as compared to a 7% national increase (as calculated by Seeking Alpha). Among other factors, it has been reported that people moving into the Bay Area earn considerably more than those moving out.



Poverty percentages in the Bay Area


The Bay Area high-tech boom has been one of the greatest new-wealth-creation machines in history, but many residents have not shared in its benefits, or, indeed, been negatively affected by its impact on housing costs. The Bay Area ranks third for its number of billionaires (after NYC and Hong Kong, according to Wealth-X), but, on the other hand, over a million local residents live in poverty (according to the Public Policy Institute of California). We have one of the great luxury home markets in the country, but also, "The Bay Area has one of the largest and least sheltered homeless populations in the country." (per SPUR, The Urbanist, September 2017)



Q1 2018 Housing Affordability Statistics
per the California Association of Realtors (CAR)


According to CAR, despite very significant increases in median home prices and interest rates, affordability rates ticked up a little year-over-year in most Bay Area counties due to increases in household incomes. This surprises us, but we have not been able to review all the underlying data employed in the CAR Index. CAR has not yet been able to incorporate the recent federal tax law changes into their calculations, which would presumably lower affordability rates due to new limits on the deductibility of state and local taxes (such as property taxes) and mortgage interest costs. Depending on specific financial circumstances, our, admittedly unqualified, back-of-the-envelope estimate is that this will probably mean the loss of tens of thousands of dollars in federal income tax deductions for someone, say, owning a San Francisco house at the current median sales price. (Please get more qualified counsel from your accountant.)

According to National Association of Realtors calculations, the San Jose and San Francisco metro areas are the least affordable in the country, just a bit below Honolulu.


Bay Area Housing Affordability Percentages

San Francisco Housing Affordability Index



Bay Area Income required to buy home

PITI payments to buy Bay Area home


San Francisco Affordable Housing Construction

San Francisco Affordable Housing Construction

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Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

Interest rates play a large role in affordability and ongoing housing costs (for those who do not pay all cash). They have risen appreciably in 2018, but so far that only seems to be motivating buyers to act more quickly before rates go higher. Still, at some point, if rates continue to rise, presumably there would be some negative impact on the market. Though considerably above the historic lows of recent years, rates are still very low by long-term standards.



Short Term Interest Rate Trends 2018

30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates since 1981

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Bay Area Employment Trends

One of the foundation stones of the current Bay Area economy and housing market has been the spectacular increase in employment over the last 7 years, often in extremely compensated jobs: It recently came out that the median salary at Facebook was $240,000. (On the other hand, Mark Zuckerberg made a salary of one dollar in 2017: Hopefully, he has other sources of income.)

However, as with all economic trends, employment numbers can also decline suddenly and precipitately, as occurred after the dotcom bubble burst. We are not making comparisons between the two high-tech booms.


Bay Area employment trends

Bay Area unemployment rates historical


Additional reading for those interested:

Report: Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Will the Last Person Leaving Please Turn Out the Lights

30+ Years of Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

All our reports and articles can be found here: Market Analysis & Trends

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These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, and longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. It is impossible to know how median prices apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. All numbers in this report are to be considered approximate.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group


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San Francisco Bay Area
Real Estate Markets

Covering San Francisco, Marin, Alameda, Contra Costa,
San Mateo, Santa Clara, Sonoma, Napa & Solano Counties

Median home prices, appreciation rates, luxury home markets,
demographics and other market factors, conditions & trends

February 2018 Report

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Bay Area Home Price Maps

Our newly updated median home price maps for the entire Bay Area by city, for San Francisco by neighborhood, and then specifically for the Marin, Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, and Wine Country markets. To access them, click on the map image below and then roll your cursor over the maps on the webpage.




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Bay Area Q4 2017 Median House Sales Prices

San Francisco Bay Area Median Home Sales Prices


Bay Area 2017 Median Condo Sales Prices

San Francisco Bay Area Condo Median Prices


One cannot draw many conclusions regarding the new year market by looking at January data, whose low volume of sales mostly reflects offers accepted in December, however so far, it appears that the low-inventory/ strong-buyer-demand dynamic is continuing in 2018. One recurring situation in recent years is that buyers jump back into the market in January in larger numbers than sellers getting their homes listed to sell - setting up a mismatch between supply and demand. Typically, many more listings will start pouring onto the market in February and March, and a much better idea regarding where the market is heading in 2018 will be possible once spring selling season data starts coming in.

Since questions constantly arise as to how one development or another is affecting or may affect Bay Area real estate markets - new tax laws, the high-tech boom, interest rates, financial markets, new home construction, climate change, and so on - our chief market analyst has made an attempt to identify and quantify the factors currently at play: Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Real Estate Markets

This report will focus on Bay Area trends by county, but many other specific-market reports - San Francisco, Marin, Diablo Valley, Sonoma, etc. - can be found here: Paragon Market Reports - Main Page


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Year-over-Year Home Price Appreciation Rates
Comparing 2017 Median Sales Prices to 2016 Prices

San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Appreciation


Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Appreciation since 1990


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Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
& What You Get for $1 Million in the Bay Area


San Francisco Bay Area Dollar per square foot values


Your great aunt gives you a check for a million dollars to buy a home, so you go down to the real estate store to fill your cart. Below are some examples of how much home you would get for your money at 2017 average dollar per square foot rates: In Palo Alto, you could buy 626 square feet of home, and in Vallejo, 3817 square feet, with many other options in between.




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Bay Area Luxury Home Markets

Though San Francisco is a major player in luxury home sales, Silicon Valley - Santa Clara & San Mateo Counties together - has over 3.5 times as many homes selling for $2m and above. All 3 counties have similar average dollar per square foot house values in this high-price category. SF dominates the luxury condo market, and these condos, on average, sell at the highest per square foot values. Marin, Alameda and central Contra Costa Counties have smaller luxury home segments, but you start to get more for your money.

Calculating luxury markets by the top 10% of sales, the thresholds for the luxury designation vary widely: For example, in Sonoma, the threshold is about $1,125,000 for houses, while in San Francisco, it is about $3 million.




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Market Dynamics Overviews




The decline in active listings available to purchase has played a significant role in pressurizing the market in recent years, especially as buyer demand has increased over the same period during which supply has dropped.





Since median sales prices are so often quoted and compared, it adds context to look at the average size of houses in the different markets. (Comparing median prices to average sizes is not ideal, but you get the idea.)





New Housing Construction

This chart below from the November 2017 Housing Inventory Report issued by the SF Planning Department is for 2016, but illustrates how new housing construction in Alameda County has recently accelerated ahead of San Francisco and Santa Clara. Our larger analysis of this report, which focuses mostly on San Francisco, can be found here: SF New Home Construction Report





Days on Market, Overbidding Asking Prices
& Months Supply of Inventory








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Interest Rate Trends

Interest rate changes will certainly be one of the main factors to keep an eye on in 2018, as they play a huge role in housing affordability.






Bay Area Unemployment Rate Trends



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Bay Area Housing Affordability Trends

The CAR Housing Affordability Index, of which the trend lines since 1991 are charted below, estimates the percentage of households who can afford to purchase a median priced house in their county, based on a 20% downpayment. The big factors in this analysis are prevailing household incomes, interest rates, and, of course, quarterly median house sales prices. It should be noted that half of home sales are, by definition, below the median sales price, and that if one included condos (typically much cheaper than houses) in the equation, that would add substantially to affordability percentages.

For Q1 2018, the Index will attempt to factor in the effects of the new federal income tax law limiting mortgage interest, property tax and state income tax deductions, which will presumably reduce affordability percentages further. As seen below, many Bay Area counties are already getting close to historic lows, clearly one of our biggest social and economic challenges.





Link to our full report on Bay Area housing affordability

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County to County, Metro Area to Metro Area
& State to State Migration Trends


Bay Area County-to-County Migration

Though people from all over the country and world migrate to and from the Bay Area, the greatest flow is actually between the local counties themselves. In net migration numbers, amid all the back and forth, people are, generally speaking, flowing from the core, most expensive counties to adjacent, somewhat less expensive counties, and then to even more affordable counties outside the inner Bay Area. However, the inner core counties, where the high-tech boom has been most concentrated, attract significant immigration from outside the Bay Area, state and U.S., which is why their population numbers have continued to grow. Note: This chart does not include Santa Clara County, though much of its migration patterns can be seen in the data of the other counties.





U.S. Metro Area to Metro Area Migration

This chart pertains to immigration in and out of the 5-county San Francisco metro area, which does not include Santa Clara to its south. Between U.S. metro areas, more people are leaving the SF metro than arriving, but that deficit has been more than made up for by substantial numbers of foreign immigrants. These numbers, however, pre-date the much more hostile view of immigration by the current administration, so we will have to wait and see what effects derive from that change. Looking at net metro-area migration, more people come to the SF metro area from Santa Clara County, Southern California, New York, Chicago and Boston. And more people leave the SF metro area to go to other (less expensive) CA counties east and north of the Bay Area, and to metro areas in Texas, Nevada, Oregon and Washington State. The exodus is made up of both people changing jobs, and retirees, though they tend to go to different places.





If you want to read about state to state migration patterns, our recent article is here: California Migration Trends


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All our Bay Area reports and articles can be found here: Market Trends & Analysis

One of our recent and popular reports: San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics

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Median House Price Appreciation since 1990




Appreciation trend lines are largely similar across the Bay Area, but some counties have outperformed others. Solano is still well below its previous peak price ten years ago, and Sonoma and Napa are just now coming back up to their previous highs. Most of the other counties have exceeded their 2006-2007 peaks, sometimes by very wide margins. As will be explored further below, proximity to the heart of the high-tech boom has been one of the major factors in recent appreciation rates. Still, it is worth noting that in the past year and a half, appreciation rates in less expensive towns and neighborhoods have typically been higher than in more expensive areas, an indication of the sometimes desperate search for affordable housing - however that might be defined within the context of any given market.



The Most Expensive Places in the Bay Area
August 2017 Update

By clicking on map, you can also access our full collection of home price
maps delineating current city home prices throughout the Bay Area.



Note: Diablo in Contra Costa with 6 sales at a median price of $2,731,000, and Penngrove in Sonoma with 13 sales at a median price of $919,500, had higher prices than Alamo and Healdsburg in the period measured, but because of their very low number of sales, we highlighted the larger markets on the map above.

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Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates since 1996 and 2011

This table below illustrates annual compound appreciation trends going back to the post-recession recovery that began around 1995, and also from the current post-2008-crash recovery which started in 2012. This is based upon someone purchasing their home all cash: If one had purchased with a 20% downpayment, then the annual compound rate of appreciation of that cash investment would be much, much higher.





There are 3 big factors behind local appreciation rates: 1) the emergence of the Bay Area in the past 20 years as an international, economic powerhouse, which generally lifted all markets, 2) how close the specific market is to the white-hot centers of the high-tech boom (SF and Silicon Valley), and, 3) how badly the county was hammered by the foreclosure crisis, since those markets whose prices fell 50% or more to unnatural lows bounced back more on a percentage basis than those counties less affected by the subprime catastrophe.

SF has had the highest compound annual rate since 1996: It is the epicenter of the Bay Area high-tech, bio-tech and fin-tech economic miracle. But Oakland soars above all other markets in appreciation since 2011, because of a combination of factors: It is the closest affordable alternative to much higher SF prices; it is a lively, multi-cultural urban area appealing to high-tech workers; and its housing prices dropped an astounding 60% after the 2008 crash, which set them up to fly upward once the heavy anchor of distressed property sales was removed.

Having complete confidence in our ability to predict what will happen in the past, we now recommend that all our clients go back in time to 1995 or 2011 and buy as many homes as possible.


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Economic & Demographic Factors

Underpinning the Bay Area real estate market and general economy are often amazing, but sometimes worrisome statistics. Below are tables and charts ranking counties, zip codes and cities by a variety of parameters. The Bay Area ranks extremely high in income, education, employment rates and general health factors, often grabbing almost all the top rankings, but it is also unhappily high in income inequality, housing unaffordability and poverty.





Bay Area City & Zip Code Income Rankings

Atherton has the highest median household income and the highest median income per worker in the state, followed by a handful of other nearby, highly affluent, Silicon Valley communities. In San Francisco, South Beach and the Presidio zip codes make the top rankings, but note that several of the most expensive neighborhoods in SF are in zip codes that mix highly affluent with less affluent areas (such as Pacific Heights and Western Addition, or Russian Hill and the Tenderloin). SF neighborhoods also have much higher percentages of residents who are tenants, and generally speaking, renters have lower incomes than homeowners.

In Marin County, Belvedere, Tiburon, Kentfield and Mill Valley make the lists; in Contra Costa, the Diablo Valley & Lamorinda communities of Blackhawk, Alamo, Lafayette, Orinda and Moraga rank highest; in Alameda, Piedmont is in the top 10 cities for median worker earnings.





Bay Area zip codes utterly dominate the CA rankings for higher education, taking 14 of the top 15 spots out of about 2600 zip codes. Unsurprisingly, high positions in income usually correlate with the same in education (and having UC Berkeley and Stanford in our midst was a help): Top Bay Area Zip Codes for Higher Education

If you wish to explore Bay Area rankings by other criteria: Top 25 Rankings in California



Employment & Unemployment

High-tech employment in SF & San Mateo Counties illustrates
broader trends in hiring: massive growth and some recent cooling.




Unemployment rates are bumping against historic lows.




Bay Area Poverty Rates & Housing Affordability

Beneath surging affluence, significant percentages of county populations
are living in poverty. High housing costs are a big factor.




Percentage of Homes Owner-Occupied



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Era of Home Construction




Bay Area Rents

Rents are even more sensitive to hiring trends than home prices.



Link to our apartment building market report

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All Bay Area counties have been rapidly growing in population. San Francisco
in particular is very densely populated and getting more so.







Overview Demographics: SF Metro Area
December 2017 Update


Ethnicity, Race, Ancestry & Language








Religious and Spiritual Practices & Beliefs






Education, and Income by Education & Sex






Employment, Wages & Commuting




The Bureau of Labor statistics analyzes average annual wages for over 700 local
occupations in the SF metro area. Below is a sampling of approximately 50 of them.








Spending Money






Voting




How Americans Spend the Hours of Their Days




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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
for the San Francisco Bay Area

Case-Shiller charts are complicated, which is why we have put them at the end of the report, but they do give perspectives on home price appreciation by price segment. The different price tiers had bubbles, crashes and recoveries of very different magnitudes, with the low-price tier having an extravagantly enormous subprime bubble and a disastrous crash, while more costly home tiers having lesser bubbles and crashes. The end result now is that all three tiers are relatively close in their current prices as compared to 2000 values, but are in very different circumstances when compared to their 2006-2007 bubble peaks. Around the Bay Area, generally speaking, San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara and Diablo Valley-Lamorinda have high-price tier markets with smaller mid-price segments; Alameda, Sonoma, Napa, Solano and non-central Contra Costa have mixes of low-price and mid-price markets (though there are, of course, pockets of high-price homes as well).

All C-S data points refer to a January 2000 home price of 100. Thus a reading of 250 signifies a price 150% higher than in January 2000.






More affordable homes have been appreciating much more quickly
in the past 15 months than more expensive price segments.



Link to our full Case-Shiller Index report

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These 2 charts below are specific to the San Francisco house and condo market, illustrating median price movements since the early 1990's through 2016.





A few interesting points regarding the above graphs: The year of highest percentage appreciation in the past 25 years was 2000, the height of the dotcom bubble. (However, by dollar appreciation, as opposed to percentage change, recent years have seen by far the greatest increase in prices.) When the dotcom bubble popped, SF condo prices were much more negatively affected than house prices: Young, high-tech workers play a bigger role in the condo market. And in 2016, the condo median sales price plateaued (and declined a little in some neighborhoods) while houses continued to appreciate, albeit at a much slower rate than the previous 4 years. We ascribe this plateauing in condo appreciation to, firstly, a big increase in new condo construction (more supply) and, secondly, to some cooling of the high-tech hiring boom (somewhat less demand).

Chart: Marin County annual market changes

Chart: Lamorinda & Diablo Valley annual market changes

Chart: Sonoma County annual market changes


Other recent or recently updated reports:

2017 SF Controller's Office Benchmark Report, Comparing SF to 16 Comparable Cities, 6MB PDF

San Francisco Luxury Home Market

San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Market Report

Marin County Market Report

San Francisco Home Prices & Trends

Sonoma County Real Estate Market Report

All our reports and articles can be found here: Market Trends & Analysis

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California and U.S. median prices used in the compound annual appreciation analysis come from the CA and National Associations of Realtors and pertain to what they designate as the "existing single family home." First half median prices are estimates based on their monthly data. Bay Area median prices are from sales reported to the appropriate county MLS system.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, and longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. It is impossible to know how median prices apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. All numbers in this report are to be considered approximate.

© 2017-2018 Paragon Real Estate Group