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NEW: Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Late Summer Report


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Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Real Estate

A Comprehensive Guide to Area Home Sales & Values


August-September 2018

In July 2018, Paragon Real Estate merged with Compass.

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While we wait for the autumn selling season to begin in earnest, this report will take a look at area, county and Bay Area market trends from a variety of angles, starting with home prices.









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Paragon & Compass Merge to Create the Largest
Residential Brokerage in Diablo Valley


We are pleased to announce that Paragon Real Estate has joined forces with Compass in order to deliver a new level of support and service for our clients. Founded in 2012, Compass is a real estate technology company now operating in 30 regions with over 90 offices across the United States, including New York City, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, Washington D.C., Dallas and Miami. With the merger, the Compass Bay Area team consists of more than 500 agents closing more than $4.5 billion in annual sales volume.


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Bay Area Housing Affordability

The California Association of Realtors just released its Q2 report on housing affordability, which we have illustrated in the 3 charts below. If Diablo Valley and Lamorinda was a county, it would probably most resemble Marin, much more than the rest of Contra Costa, in its demographics and home prices.







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The Luxury Home Market

Spring 2018 was a very strong market for Diablo Valley & Lamorinda luxury homes, though as is typically the case, it was not as hot as the market for more affordable homes. These dynamics were consistent across the Bay Area.


Active Luxury Listings on Market
by Month




Listings Accepting Offers
by Month

Luxury home listings going into contract
hit a new high in May 2018




Sales & No-Sale Listings

Sales volume hit a new high in Q2 2018, however the number of listings that expire or are withdrawn from the market without selling is also high. The reason for no-sale listings is typically overpricing: Even a gorgeous home has a fair market value and asking for too much risks buyers simply turning away to other options.



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Trends in General Market Dynamics

Average Days on Market

As the market get hotter, listings sell faster.




Sales Price to List Price Percentage

As the market get hotter, overbidding increases.
Seasonality also plays a significant role in demand.




Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings available to purchase, the lower the MSI. Generally speaking, MSI figures around the Bay Area have been flirting with historic lows in 2018.




Active Listings on Market

Listings gradually increase through mid-year,
then gradually decline until plunging in mid-winter.




Price Reductions

Just as listing inventory peaks in mid-year, the number of price reductions also peaks: Sellers of unsold spring listings re-strategize pricing in order to sell their homes before the mid-winter market doldrums set in.



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Mortgage Interest Rates
Short-Term and Long-Term Trends

Two of the factors that have worried market analysts have been the big changes in federal tax law limiting the deductibility of state and local taxes, and interest rate expenses - changes that affect more affluent, higher home cost areas like ours most dramatically - and increasing interest rates. So far in 2018, buyers appear to have shrugged off any such concerns.

Interest rates play a big role in housing affordability, and their plunge after the 2008 crash played a vital part in the market recovery of the past 6 years. It has typically been very difficult to predict interest rate changes with any accuracy, though most economists believe they are headed higher. The questions being: If so, how high? And how will buyers react?



30 year interest rates long term

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

© 2018 Compass


Annual Median Home Price Appreciation since 1996
Market Values by City, Bedroom Count and Price Segment
Luxury Home Sales & Where Best to Look in Your Price Range

Mid-Year 2018 Report

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Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, SF, CA & U.S.
Median Home Price Trends




Diablo Valley historical home price trend

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Annual Median Sales Price Changes
by Dollar and by Percentage


Appreciation is typically viewed through the lens of percentage changes, but looking at dollar-value increases is another angle that is sometimes more interesting. Below are charts measuring appreciation by both parameters.







Comparing the first half of 2018 to 2017, the median house sales price in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda increased by $65,000 or 5.2%. Note that it is not a given that the second half of the year will see home price appreciation at similar rates: Prices could increase further, or they might plateau or even tick down instead. For the last 7 years, spring has typically been the most feverish selling season of the year and has often powered most of the appreciation occurring over the full year.

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Median sales prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as changes in inventory or in luxury home sales.


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Home Value Appreciation by City
2012 through Mid-2018

Median Sales Prices






Average Dollar per Square Foot Values







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Home Sales & Prices by City & Bedroom Count

Reflecting 12 Months Sales through Mid-2018











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Where Best to Look in Your Price Range
Home Sales by City & Price Segment






Luxury Home Sales by City



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City Sales Breakdowns









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Additional reports can be found here: Paragon Main Reports Page


Please let us know if you have questions
or if we can be of assistance in any other way.

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group



The Paragon May 2018 Report for Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville,
Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, San Ramon & Walnut Creek

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We have just published our new Bay Area report: Updated Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

Before diving into prices and trends in individual city markets, these 3 charts are overviews for the greater Diablo Valley and Lamorinda market. In April 2018, the median house sales price hit a new peak price - 5% higher than the previous high.


Diablo Valley median home price by month

Diablo Valley historical home price trend

Diablo Home Sales by Bedroom Count

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Market Dynamics by City

Though we tend to speak of the real estate market as a single reality, in fact, market size and dynamics vary considerably by community and price segment. As further context to the analyses below, here are links to 2 charts from our April report illustrating home prices and price per square foot values by city: Median Home Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Following this series of charts is an analysis of how different Diablo Valley markets have performed since 2000: boom, bust and recovery.


Diablo Valley Lamorinda Active Listings for Sale

Diablo Valley Lamorinda home sales by city

Diablo Valley Lamorinda luxury home sales

Diablo Valley Lamorinda average days on market by city

Diablo Valley Lamorinda months supply of inventory

Diablo Valley Lamorinda Absorption Rate

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Up, Down & Up: Diablo Valley Home
Value Changes since 2000


Bubble, Crash & Recovery
by City & Price Segment



Home value appreciation in the charts below is broken down by 4 distinct time periods: 1) 2000 to peak of bubble (2005/2006); 2) peak of bubble to bottom of market (typically 2011); 3) the first 4 years of the current recovery, 2012 to 2015; and, finally, 4) 2015 to present.

House appreciation is also broken out by 4 broad price segments as exemplified by the markets in 4 cities: The least expensive segment is represented by house sales in Concord, a city not usually included in our market area reports, but used here to make a point regarding macro sales trends in the county and Bay Area. The below mid-price segment is illustrated by sales in Walnut Creek. Danville 94526 is used to represent the mid-price segment; and the expensive house segment is illustrated by sales in Alamo.

The calculations below were made by averaging both median sales price and average dollar per square foot appreciation rates. Present values are based on sales occurring in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.


2000 to Peak of Bubble,
Crash to Bottom of Market


The lowest priced homes around the Bay Area saw by far the biggest bubbles (2000 to 2006) and crashes (2008-2011), mostly due to the predatory lending/ subprime financing crisis which pumped up prices beyond what buyers could actually afford to pay for in monthly housing costs: Think of absurdly low teaser rates, no down-payment loans, so-called liar loans, constant refinancing pitches to suck out equity, and promises that home prices only go up. The ups and downs in more affluent markets were certainly significant, but much smaller.





Bottom of Market to 2015,
2015 to Present


2012 to 2015, a major factor in the gigantic jump in the lowest priced Bay Area communities was simply the fact that home prices had crashed so unnaturally low due to distressed property sales after the bubble popped. However, even with its very high appreciation rate, Concord in 2015 still remained below its median price in 2006, while the other, higher price segments were beginning to surpass their previous peak prices.

In 2015, the market shifted a bit - there was considerable financial market volatility in late 2015 and the first half of 2016 and the high-tech boom cooled temporarily - and appreciation rates diverged in a somewhat different way, with increases in more affordable cities - such as Concord, Walnut Creek and San Ramon - appreciably outpacing those in more expensive cities, such as Danville, Blackhawk and Alamo. One factor was that buyers were simply searching for homes they could still afford, which added heightened pressure to less costly markets. This was a common phenomenon across local county markets.





Total Dollar & Percentage Appreciation
2000 to Present


Total percentage appreciation rates since 2000 are quite similar for the low to mid-priced segments, and somewhat lower for the most expensive segment. This is similar to what has occurred in San Francisco as well. By actual dollar appreciation however, expensive home prices increased the most, even with their lower percentage appreciation rates.




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Additional reports can be found here: Paragon Main Reports Page


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April 2018 Update

Median home price appreciation, overbidding, house values
by city, media reports of impending doom, market dynamics

The Paragon Report for Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville,
Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, San Ramon & Walnut Creek

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Consumer confidence is still soaring, and buyers continue to push aside concerns regarding recent financial market volatility, federal tax law changes affecting Bay Area homeowners, and interest rate increases, to fuel strong markets throughout Central Contra Costa.

In Q1 2018, the median house sales price in Diablo Valley & Lamorinda of $1,285,000 was 4.5% above the Q1 2017 price of $1,230,000, and the tiniest bit above the previous peak reached in Q2 2017 ($1,280,000). Prices usually increase from Q1 to Q2 as the spring selling season really gets going, so it will be interesting to see what happens next in our market.


Median House Prices by Year
since 1996

Diablo Valley Median Home Prices by Year


Long-Term Home Price Trends
Bay Area vs. National Appreciation since 1987
per CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

The Case-Shiller Index does not use median sales prices to measure appreciation, but instead employs its own algorithm. This chart compares the national home price appreciation trend with that for high-price-tier houses in the 5-county SF Metro Area. The high price tier applies best to most of the markets in Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, San Francisco, Central-Southern Marin and San Mateo.

In this chart, home prices in January 2000 are designated at a value of 100, thus the reading of 248 in December 2017 signifies a price that has appreciated 148% in the 18 years since then. Notice how similar the national and Bay Area trend lines are, with appreciable variations occurring after the 1989 earthquake, during the dotcom bubble and crash, and during the most recent Bay Area high tech boom.

Case-Shiller SF Bay Area vs National Home Price Appreciation



As always, market dynamics often vary significantly by specific location, property type and price segment, and median prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as fluctuations in luxury home and new construction sales, and in the average size of homes sold). Late reported sales may affect the median sales prices illustrated in the quarterly chart, though typically only to a minor degree.

A condensed version of our report on the ups and downs in the market over recent decades: SF Bay Area Real Estate Cycles


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Home Values by City

Sales Reported to MLS, 10/1/17 – 4/10/18


Below is a glance at recent house median prices and average dollar per square foot values broken out by city, for sales reported to MLS in the last 6 months or so - basically since autumn sales began to close in early October.


Median House Sales Prices

Diablo Valley Home Prices by City


Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Diablo Valley Dollar per Square Foot by City

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Market Dynamics

The market has just begun what is typically the busiest selling season of the year, as new listings pour onto the market, and buyers jump on those listings.


Diablo Valley real estate market seasonality


Sales Price to List Price Percentage

Higher percentages over list price signify more heated buyer competition for new listings coming on market. By this metric, 2018 has gotten off to a stronger start than 2017.


Diablo Valley overbidding asking prices


Average Days on Market

Diablo Valley Average Days on Market


The Luxury Home Market
Q1 Year-over-Year Comparisons

Diablo Valley luxury home market


Pricing & Overpricing

For home listings under $2m, the difference between the median list price and the median sales price is quite small, about 4%, though when looking at listings that do not sell, but expire instead, the difference swells to 9%. That 5% makes all the difference between selling and not selling. For homes over $2m, the differences become more striking: The median list price is almost 10% higher than the median sales price, and there is a 15% difference between median sales price and the median asking price of those expensive homes that do not sell.

Generally speaking, sellers and listing agents in the luxury home segment are more prone to overpricing their listings beyond what buyers are willing to contemplate paying. Even the most beautiful home has a fair market value based on a rational comparative market analysis.


Diablo Valley Pricing and overpricing

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The Facts Regarding Bay Area
Migration, Population & Employment Trends


Alarmist Media Reports Forecast Doom for Bay Area

Many semi-hysterical articles were published in March regarding Bay Area residents fleeing in droves, that more people are leaving than arriving, that Silicon Valley is over, and this may spell disaster for the region. Wow, that sounds very bad - but is not true: Though the rate of growth has considerably slowed from the torrid pace of recent years - which is probably a good thing, since the Bay Area is now bursting at the seams - more people are still arriving than leaving, and population and employment numbers are still increasing. Our report, Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area Please Turn Off the Lights covers this topic in much greater detail.

Here are 3 of the charts from our full article, based on recent U.S. census and CA state employment data.


Net domestic and foreign migration in and out of the SF Metro Area,
natural population increases and annual net population growth

SF Bay Area Migration-Population-Jobs


The San Francisco Bay Area population continued to increase in 2017,
though slowing from the feverish growth rates of previous years.




The Bay Area continues to be a high-paying-job-creating machine,
though hiring intermittently speeds up or slows down.



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Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rate changes are one of many factors we reviewed in a recent report Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets. It may be that fears of impending rate increases are helping to fuel the strong buyer demand we are seeing so far in 2018.



30 Year Short Term Interest Rates

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Additional reports can be found here: Paragon Main Reports Page


The Paragon March 2018 Report for Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville,
Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, San Ramon & Walnut Creek

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It is still too early to come to definitive conclusions about where the year is going, but right now, in most market segments, buyer demand remains very strong for a limited supply of listings. This is especially true in the more affordable home segments, a dynamic playing out around the Bay Area. Of course, whatever the price segment, how buyers respond to a particular listing depends on the specific property and its location, appeal, preparation, marketing and pricing: Some listings sell very quickly, some only sell after price reductions, and some do not sell at all.

As an example of what is going on so far in 2018, our home sales in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda here at Paragon are up 48% for January and February as compared to last year, though admittedly we are outperforming the general market, which is still up by 5.4% (per Broker Metrics for dollar volume MLS sales).


Home Value Appreciation
Year-over-Year Comparisons

Diablo Valley year over year home price appreciation


Measuring both median sales prices and average price per square foot values, area homes appreciated by 11% year-over-year, comparing 3-month sales periods.


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Home Values by Lot Size

In San Francisco, a house worth $1m can sit next to one worth $3m, each on its own narrow 2500 square foot lot, but in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda, with much more land to stretch out on, home values correlate surprisingly closely to lot size, as illustrated below. Which, of course, does not mean this applies to every home in the area.




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Appreciation by City & Town
by Year, 2012 to 2017

The next 5 charts look at house value appreciation in cities and towns around the area, from most affordable, to more expensive, to most expensive. Diablo, probably the most expensive enclave in Diablo Valley, is not included in the median sales price charts because of how few sales occur there in any given year, which makes median prices jump up and down without great meaningfulness.

Year-over-year appreciation has been quite consistent around the area since the market recovery began in 2012.


Median House Sales Prices
by City since 2012






Average Price per Square Foot House Values
by City since 2012





Diablo Valley Cities Home Values

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Supply & Demand Statistics

Months Supply of Inventory
& Average Days on Market


As seen below, as measured by two classic statistics of supply and demand, the market in recent months has not softened in comparison to the last 2 years, and by these measurements, is significantly hotter than last year at this time.






Active Listings on Market
by Month & by City

This next chart illustrates both the seasonality of the market and the size of the respective city markets in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda. We are just now entering the spring selling season when inventory and demand swells dramatically.






Sales, Price Reductions
& Listing That Do Not Sell


General Market Listings under $2m

The last 12 months have been a strong market in area real estate, and the great majority of sales under $2m sold very quickly, and averaged a sales price over asking price. Those listings that had to go through price reductions before selling spent an average of 6.5 weeks longer on the market. And then for every 7 listings that sold, 1 listing expired and was withdrawn from the market, typically because buyers deemed the property overpriced. This is a relatively low ratio. As will be seen in the next section, on the luxury home market, the issue of listings that do not sell is much more substantial.




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Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Luxury Home Market

Number of Active Listings by Month
& # of Active Luxury Listings by City


Another Bay Area trend has been the increasing number of luxury home listings on the market, which appears to be outpacing the increase in buyer demand for these expensive homes. We are just on the cusp of the spring selling season for luxury real estate, where inventory typically swells to its annual high point, and much more will be known regarding the direction of the market in the next few months.







Additional Chart: Luxury Home Sales by City



Luxury Home Sales, Price Reductions
& Listings That Do Not Sell


This chart illustrates the difference between high-end listings the market deems appealing and fairly priced - on average, selling quickly for a tiny bit under asking price - and those that have to go through price reductions prior to selling (on average, an extra 14 weeks on the market), and then those that do not sell at all, but expire and withdrawn from the market. The ratio of listings that do not sell is much, much higher in the luxury segment than in the general market, and this has everything to do with demand and pricing (or overpricing).




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Mortgage Interest Rates

Long-Term Trends

Long-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


Debt in America

One of the macro-economic factors of concern is that debt levels, of virtually every kind, are hitting new highs in the country (and in the world). This has been heavily subsidized by the historically low interest rates prevailing in recent years, but rates appear to be headed upward, and increasing debt often plays a big role in market cycles.


Debt Taken On to Invest in Financial Markets
(Often a Sign of Investor Over-Exuberance)




Household Non-Housing Debt
Credit Cards, Student Loans, Car Financing




Household Mortgage Debt Service Ratio

The amount of total mortgage debt in the country is now about the same as at its last peak in 2008 (not illustrated on this chart), but because of the plunge in interest rates since then, the ratio of mortgage debt service to disposable income was close to an all-time low in mid-2017. Interest rates have been rising since then, but are still about 30% lower than in 2007. The good news is that so much of mortgage debt in America is now in fixed-rate loans at very low interest rates, which adds much stability to economic conditions, a stability grievously lacking at the time of the 2008 financial markets crash.





Link to additional charts on debt


Additional reading for those interested:

Paragon Main Real Estate Reports Page

Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics

Median Price Trends, Average Dollar per Square Foot Values, Luxury Home Sales,
Sales Breakdowns by Price Segment & Bedroom Count, Supply & Demand Analytics

The Paragon January 2018 Report for Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville,
Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, San Ramon & Walnut Creek

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Another strong year in real estate, with significant median home price appreciation in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda, and indeed throughout the Bay Area.

Diablo Valley, SF, CA, National Home Price Trends

Diablo Valley Lamorinda Median Home Price Trends by Year

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Trends by County


The chart below, based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index data, tracks general price appreciation trends of house in the upper third of prices in the 5-county SF Metro Area (such as those mostly found in SF, Marin, San Mateo and Diablo Valley-Lamorinda). Case-Shiller does not base their calculations on median sales price changes but uses its own proprietary algorithm. This chart has been simplified to only reflect percentage increases and decreases from various points in real estate cycles. Since it covers 5 counties, it is a very generalized illustration.

Case-Shiller San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Trends


Link to our full report on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Link to our report on Bay Area real estate cycles

Link to our updated survey of Bay Area R.E. Markets



Move cursor over map for median sales prices
reflecting 2017 MLS sales; updated January 2018




Link to Diablo Valley-Lamorinda report, Home Price Appreciation trends by City

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Moving into 2018, there are a lot of spinning plates in the air - local, state, national and international factors that could affect markets. 2017 saw real estate markets surge and financial markets soar. After some cooling from mid-2015 to mid-2016, the Bay Area high-tech economy surged back into high speed, with companies leasing enormous spaces in newly built office buildings - which they will presumably fill with new hires. Unemployment rates have flirted with historic lows, and 2018 may see some major local IPOs, which could create great quantities of new wealth. The Bay Area still has probably the most dynamic, innovation-fueled economy in the world and indisputably remains among the great metro areas on the planet - but there are social, economic, political and environmental challenges looming as well.

Article link: Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Congress delivered an unpleasant holiday present to many Bay Area residents in the form of federal tax law changes limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local taxes. The effect of these changes make living in an already high cost-of-living area more costly for many residents, and also reduce some of the financial incentives of homeownership, especially for more expensive homes. Predictions on the effect of these tax changes on local housing markets and the business environment range from one extreme (economic devastation) to the other (shrug), and the state legislature is currently working on bills that might blunt the negative financial impacts. It is too early to guess how it will all play out. We live in interesting times.

This report will review real estate trends and some of the economic issues that impacted them. Most of the charts are self-explanatory, so we have kept the text to a minimum.


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Diablo Valley Lamorinda year over year home price appreciation

Diablo Valley Lamorinda Annual Homes Sales Volume

Diablo Valley Lamorinda Sales by City

Diablo Valley Lamorinda real estate market seasonality

Diablo Valley Lamorinda Average Days on Market

SF Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory by Year

California Migration Trends in 2016

Link to our analysis of domestic and foreign migration trends

Link to our survey of Bay Area demographics


S&P 500 Index by Year

Annual Mortgage Rate Trends

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Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Luxury Homes Market

Diablo Valley Lamorinda Luxury Home Sales by Year

A breakdown of luxury home sales by city is 4 charts down this page.

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Home Price Breakdowns by City

Diablo Valley condo prices

Diablo Valley homes under a million dollars

Diablo Valley homes under 2 million

Diablo Valley Lamorinda Luxury Home Sales by City

Diablo Valley 2-bedroom condo sales by city

Diablo Valley 3-bedroom house prices

Diablo Valley 4-bedroom home prices

Diablo Valley 5-bedroom home prices

Diablo Valley 6-bedroom home prices

Walnut Creek San Ramon home prices Danville Alamo Blackhawk home sales by price range

Lamorinda home sales by price range


All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group


The Paragon Q4 2017 Report for Alamo, Blackhawk, Danville,
Diablo, Lafayette, Moraga, Orinda, San Ramon & Walnut Creek

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Median Home Price Appreciation Trends


City Home Price Trends in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda


Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

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Market Overviews

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Unit Sales by City

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Sales by Bedroom Count

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Sales by Price Range - Pie Chart

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Sales Price to List Price Percentage by Month

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Luxury Home Sales

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Luxury Home Sales by Year

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Luxury Home Sales by City

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Market Statistics by City

Median House Price Appreciation Rates since 2011

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Home Price Appreciation Rates


Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

The higher the percentage the hotter the demand.

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers by City


Average Days on Market

Generally speaking, the fewer the days on market, the stronger the demand.

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Average Days on Market by City

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Seasonality & Real Estate Market

Advantages to buying during the mid-November to mid-January slowdown

Just before Thanksgiving the market begins to rapidly subside until starting to revive about 7-8 weeks later. Many buyers simply check out during this period, but there are good reasons for staying engaged - mainly the possibility of getting a much better deal. Starting in late summer, sellers begin reducing prices in large numbers as they try to capture the attention of buyers before the big slowdown: Buyers should treat these as brand new listings and take a new look. Competition between buyers drops dramatically during the mid-winter period, and since competitive bidding is the biggest single factor behind higher prices, its decline can mean significant savings. Fewer buyers also mean that sellers are often more willing to negotiate: Throw offers in at whatever price you feel is right and see where they go. It is true that the number of new listings coming on markets plunges, but there are still hundreds of listings to consider for those willing to stay in the game.


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Annual Home Price Appreciation Trends by City

Alamo Median Home Prices by Year

Blackhawk Median Home Prices by Year

Danville Median Home Prices by Year

Lafayette and Orinda Median Home Prices by Year

Moraga Median Home Prices by Year

Walnut Creek Median Home Prices by Year

San Ramon Median Home Prices by Year

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Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rates are somewhat above their all-time lows, but still very, very low by historic standards. This is of enormous importance to buyers financing their home purchases.


Short-Term Rate Trends

Short-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


Long-Term Trends

Long-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


There are dozens of other analyses specific to the Diablo Valley and Lamorinda real estate markets in the reports further below.

All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

A Survey of Diablo Valley, Lamorinda and Bay Area Demographics

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Diablo Valley & Lamorinda
Real Estate Market Report

October 2017 Report

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Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Median Home Sales Prices

Annual Median Sales Price Trends since 1996

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Annual Median Home Price Trends


Quarterly Median Sales Price Trends since 2014

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Quarterly Median House Price Trends


Median Home Prices by City, 2017 YTD

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda 2017 Median Sales Prices by City

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Market Seasonality

The market has another 4 to 5 weeks to run before it begins to subside into the mid-winter slowdown: After mid-November, buyer demand starts rapidly dwindling until picking up again in late January and February. So the window for selling in the autumn market is starting to close. However, the holiday season can be a good time for buyers: It is true that the selection of homes on the market drops significantly, and many fewer new listings come on market, but competition from other buyers also plunges, which can lead to more negotiation room and better deals.




Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Real Estate Market Seasonality

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Market Statistics by Price Segment

We tend to think of the area real estate market as a single entity, but Diablo Valley and Lamorinda are made up of distinct market segments with differing realities and trends. Right now, the differences mostly break by price segment more than by location, with more affordable homes constituting a red hot market, while the market for more expensive homes is considerably cooler or softer.


Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

The higher the percentage the hotter the demand.

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Percentage of Listings Going into Contract


Average Days on Market

The fewer the days on market, the stronger the demand.

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Average Days on Market by Price


Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared
to the supply of listings available to purchase.

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Months Supply of Inventory by Price Range

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Home & Lot Sizes by City & Price Segment

Generally speaking, Diablo Valley and Lamorinda overall have substantially larger house sizes than any Bay Area county, but within the area itself home and lot sizes vary markedly by city and, of course, by price.


Median Home Sizes - Square Footage

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Median House Size

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda House Sizes by Price Range


Median Lot Sizes - Acreage

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Median Home Lot Size by City

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Home Lot Sizes by Price Range

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Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Luxury Home Market

Home listings of $2 million+ have been steadily rising for the past 4 years, and sales hit a Q3 high of 85 in 2017 (though still lower than Q2 2017, which hit an all-time quarterly high of 103 sales). However, there is a considerable difference in the median list prices that sellers are asking for, and the median sales prices buyers are paying. Probably because of this, the ratio of expired listings (no sale) to sold listings is very high in this price segment: A substantial percentage of luxury home listings simply do not sell.

As seen in earlier charts, the market for high-priced homes in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda is significantly cooler - as measured by days on market, months supply of inventory, and percentage of listings accepting offers - than the market for more affordable homes (which is, generally speaking, extremely hot). Realistic pricing is critical: Those high-end listings that the market deems appealing and competitively priced sell, on average, very quickly for full price. The overall statistics are dragged down by those homes buyers deemed appreciably overpriced.

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Luxury Home Market statistics

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Luxury Home Sales Prices to List Prices

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Context Economic Factors to Bay Area Housing Markets




We recently completed a report placing the Bay Area housing market within the context of a wide variety of other economic and demographic dynamics, such as population growth, employment and hiring, the stock and the IPO markets, consumer confidence, interest rates, commercial lease rates, aging homeowners (who sell less frequently), housing affordability and new housing construction. Because conditions, trends and cycles seen among them are, more often than not, closely interrelated. In some of these analyses we use San Francisco data due to its availability, but the trends generally apply to other Bay Area markets. The exception is new home construction: The city is in the midst of a huge building boom, mostly of relatively expensive condos and rental apartments.

The full report is online here: Economic Context Report.


Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.

All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Another Hot Autumn Market
in Diablo Valley & Lamorinda?

September 2017 Report

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The autumn selling season is relatively short, running from mid-September until mid-November, when activity begins to drop dramatically for the holiday season. The coming two months will be the next major indicator: Will the local homes market continue to maintain the intense high-demand, low-supply heat of this past spring, or will it start to shift and cool? While the entire market is significantly affected by seasonality, the luxury home segment is fiercely so, and September/October will be the peak selling period for high-end homes until spring 2018 rolls around.


Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, San Francisco, California
& United States Median Home Price Trends


The appreciation of home prices in the Bay Area since 2011 has out-performed overall state and national markets by a substantial margin.


Diablo Valley, Lamorinda, California and US Home Price Trends

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Annual Appreciation by City

Median House Sales Prices, 2011 to 2017 YTD

Median sales prices are not perfect indicators of changes in values for specific homes: They can be and often are affected by factors other than changes in fair market value, and shorter-term anomalies are not uncommon. In the more expensive communities especially, the average size of houses sold in a particular period can sometimes vary considerably. What is certainly true is that every part of Diablo Valley and Lamorinda has seen large-scale appreciation since the recovery began in 2012.




Diablo Valley-Lamorinda City House Price Appreciation

Diablo Valley and Lamorinda Median Price Appreciation


Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

As with median sales prices, average dollar per square foot values are generalities that can be affected by various factors and usually disguise a huge range of values in the underlying individual sales. Because smaller homes will typically have higher dollar per square foot values than larger ones, less expensive communities with appreciably smaller average house sizes will sometimes have equal or higher dollar per foot values than more expensive communities with larger homes. As always, longer-term trends are more meaningful than shorter-term.



Diablo Valley and Lamorinda Dollar per Square Foot Appreciation

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Dollar per Square Foot Appreciation

Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Dollar per Square Foot Appreciation

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Seasonality

Active Listings on Market

This next chart illustrates both the striking ebb and flow of the market by season, as well as the sizes of the respective markets within Diablo Valley and Lamorinda. San Ramon, Walnut Creek and Danville are by far the largest markets, then come Lafayette, Alamo and Orinda, and then Blackhawk and Moraga. Diablo is a tiny market, but typically has the highest median sales price in the entire area.



Diablo Valley and Lamorinda Active Home Listings


Diablo Valley: Active Listings, Accepted Offers, Closed Sales

Diablo Valley Home Listings & Sales


Luxury Home Market

Spring sees the highest volume of new luxury home listings coming on market, but after declining for the summer, they usually spike again in September for the much shorter autumn selling season. Sales volumes follow new listing volumes by a couple of months, because of the time required for marketing, offer negotiation, and the escrow period before the sale actually closes.



Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Luxury Home Listings and Sales

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Market Dynamics Statistics

Sales Price to Original Price (SP-OP) Percentages

Generally speaking, the higher the demand, the greater the competitive bidding, which is what leads to sales prices going over asking prices. All the SP-OP percentages in the area during the feverish Q2 market were high by historical standards. It is not uncommon for more expensive homes to have lower SP-OP percentages, though several area cities bucked that phenomenon this past spring.


Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Sales Prices to List Prices


Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The lower the months supply of inventory, the higher the demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase, i.e. a lower MSI equals a hotter market. The entire Bay Area has been experiencing very, very low MSI figures recently, but typically the less expensive areas have been seeing the extreme lows, with higher-end markets somewhat higher.

Within Diablo Valley and Lamorinda itself, the MSI in the more affordable communities, such as Walnut Creek and San Ramon, have generally been lower than in the more expensive cities, though all areas have seen very low MSI figures since spring began.


Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory

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Luxury Home Sales by Price Segment

The top 10% of home sales is usually considered the luxury segment, and for the greater Diablo Valley and Lamorinda area, that begins at about $1.75m. This chart breaks down sales volumes above that price, as well as the overall number of high-end sales by each city. If you wish to have greater detail on these sales, please let us know.



Diablo Valley-Lamorinda Luxury Home Sales

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National Housing Affordability

This next chart illustrates home affordability for selected metro areas across the country as calculated by the National Association of Realtors. The 7 Bay Area counties, in our 2 metro areas, are the least affordable in the nation - not the happiest of distinctions, except for those planning to sell and move out of the area.


U.S. Metro Area Housing Affordability


Bay Area House Markets

Since San Francisco is considered the big city in the Bay Area (though San Jose is actually larger), it seems counter-intuitive that its house market is one of the smallest. Owners in the Bay Area (and the nation) are getting older, and selling their houses ever more infrequently, and new house construction has lagged well behind demand. Condo sales are now dominating sales in SF itself. These are major factors behind the supply and demand dynamics prevailing in counties around the Bay Area.



SF Bay Area House Markets

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Bay Area Home Price Appreciation
per the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

Earlier in this report, it was mentioned that median price changes can sometimes be somewhat unreliable as indicators of actual appreciation. However, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index measures appreciation using its own special algorithm tracking resales of the same home, and it does not use median sales prices. This first chart below, based on Case-Shiller, is a simplified, smoothed-out look at the up and down cycles over the past 33 years in the higher end of the Bay Area real estate market, which predominates in most of the city, Marin, San Mateo, and Diablo Valley and Lamorinda. Because the Index covers 5 counties, it merges the differences between their separate markets into a single trend line: SF and San Mateo, the centers of the high-tech boom have recently, in this latest rebound, had somewhat higher appreciation rates than Marin and Diablo Valley-Lamorinda (but which are still quite high).



San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Cycles


This second Case-Shiller chart illustrates how homes in different price segments around the Bay Area have recently been appreciating at considerably different rates. C-S divides all the Bay Area house sales into thirds by number of sales: low-, mid- and high-price. As illustrated in the lower green line, the higher-priced segment went flat in appreciation in 2016, but then jumped back to life in 2017. The most affordable price segment (top blue line) has been experiencing the highest pressure of buyer demand and competitive bidding, and since April 2016, has out-appreciated the most expensive segment, 12.4% to 4.3%, i.e. almost triple the rate of increase. The middle price segment (gold line) has been in between, appreciating by 7.8%.

This is generally true within each county, as buyers search for homes they can still afford in the area they wish to live.

The numbers on this chart all refer to a January 2000 home price of 100. Thus 262 signifies a price 162% higher than in 2000.



Case-Shiller SF Home Price Trends by Price Tier

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Mortgage Interest Rates

Since the election, interest rates have seen a wild ride, first up and then down. As of the end of August, rates hit their lowest point so far in 2017, a significant financial advantage for buyers.



Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.

All our many Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Real Estate

The Paragon Mid-Year Report

Highest median sales price ever; a new peak in luxury home sales;
community home price tables; Bay Area home price maps

July 2017

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A Very Hot Spring

Median Sales Price Appreciation
by Quarter since 2014





After another feverish spring market, the Diablo Valley and Lamorinda median house price hit a new quarterly peak in Q2 2017, $51,000 above the recent high hit in Q1. This dynamic of hitting new highs was prevalent around the Bay Area.

Our Survey of County Markets around the Bay Area

And as illustrated in the chart below, luxury home sales in the area also hit a new peak, rising 29% above the number of sales in Q2 2016. A jump in the number of high-end sales is one of the factors behind the increase in median sales price.



Luxury Homes Sales
by Quarter since 2014




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Home Price Maps

We have just updated our median home price maps for the Bay Area, San Francisco, Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, Marin County and the Wine Country. To access them, click on the map image below and then roll your cursor over the maps on the webpage.





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Home Prices by City & Bedroom Count












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Breaking Down Sales by Price Segment

Median sales prices typically disguise a wide range of prices in the underlying individual home sales, which is what these charts illustrate.









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Building Cranes Everywhere in San Francisco

If you have recently been in San Francisco and have wondered at the amount of construction currently underway and planned, here is a brief summary: Approximately 64,000 housing units, 31 million square feet of commercial space and 25 hotels with 4685 rooms are now in the SF new construction pipeline. 5700 housing units, 10 million square feet and 5 hotels are currently under construction. The city is in the midst of one of its biggest building booms in history. Note that if economic conditions change, planned projects can change very quickly as well.


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Bay Area Rent Trends




San Francisco still has the highest rents in the nation (the light blue columns in the chart above), exceeding even Manhattan (in second place, delineated by the dark blue line), but they have been dropping since recent peaks in late 2015/early 2016. Generally speaking, rents around the Bay Area have either declined, in what had been the hottest markets, or seen their appreciation rates significantly slow, over the past year or so. (We did not include Contra Costa rents in the chart, because, as with home prices, its overall rates do not reflect those prevailing in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda.)


All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Feverish Spring Markets Prevail in Diablo Valley,
Lamorinda & around the Bay Area

As Buyers Compete for Inadequate Supply of Home Listings,
Median House Sales Prices Hit New Highs Almost Everywhere

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Market Report
June 2017 Market Update

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Year-over-Year 3-Month Median Sales Prices
March-May, since 2011



Comparing March through May sales year-over-year, houses and condos hit new peaks in median sales prices in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda. This also occurred in San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin and Alameda Counties, among others.


Sale by Price Segment
12 Months Detached House Sales




Home Sales by Era of Construction



Interesting to note: About half of the houses in San Francisco were built prior to 1920, and the great majority were built prior to 1940. In Diablo Valley and Lamorinda, the percentage of sales of homes constructed before 1940 is 1%. After San Francisco stopped building houses, home building cranked into gear here and never stopped.


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Comparing Us and Them

Bay Area & National Appreciation Trends since 1987
through March 2017

The numbers on the Case-Shiller chart below all relate to a home price of 100 in January 2000: 50 denotes a home price 50% below then; 230 signifies a price 130% above January 2000.



This chart compares the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Area in the blue line and the United States market in the green line. It goes through March 2017, which is the last report Case-Shiller has released as of early June, so it will not reflect the surge of appreciation in April and May.

According to these aggregate sales indices, since January 2012, the difference between overall home price appreciation rates, Bay Area and U.S. is 88% vs. 39%. It is interesting to see the other points where there were significant divergences in trends: After the 1989 earthquake, during the dotcom bubble rise and collapse, and the inflation of the subprime financing bubble (though that most dramatically affected homes in the lower price ranges around the Bay Area).


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Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Luxury Home Market

Market activity in luxury homes rose across the board in May. In particular, the number of luxury home listings that went into contract - accepted offers - was the highest in years (and probably, the highest ever), which may mean a new high in closed sales in June. On the other hand, even during this very hot market, for every 2 luxury house listings that sold, 1 listing expired without selling: Correct pricing remains critical in this very expensive market segment.




12 Months Sales by City
$1,750,000 & Above



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Supply & Demand Dynamics

Overbidding List Prices

Competitive bidding between buyers, leading to sales prices over original list prices, almost always peaks during the spring selling season. This is a classic dynamic of very high demand and very low supply.





Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
by City & Town

MSI is another classic measure of the balance between supply and demand: None of the MSI figures found in the area would be considered high, and many of them would be considered almost fantastically low. Note that it is not unusual for MSI numbers to be higher for luxury homes than for more affordable homes, and that is definitely true around the Bay Area: The search for affordability, or comparative affordability, is currently a huge driver of demand.




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Home Value Appreciation Trends
by City & Town

Every city and town in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda saw continuing appreciation in dollar per square foot values in 2017 to date. Only two did not see median sales price increases as well, and, in both cases, it was because the average size of homes sold declined significantly as compared to last year.

































All our Bay Area real estate reports can be found here: Paragon Market Trends & Conditions

Many more analyses with other angles pertaining to the Diablo Valley and Lamorinda real estate market can be found below, in earlier reports.

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Home Value Appreciation Continues in early 2017

May 2017 Report

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As illustrated in the charts below, the Diablo Valley and Lamorinda homes market, with one significant exception, has seen median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values continue to increase in 2017. One caveat: One should not make too much of relatively short-term changes until substantiated over the longer term. Short-term values can sometimes fluctuate for other reasons besides changes in fair market value.


House Value Trends

Median Sales Price Trends by Month & by Year;
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values by Month

By all 3 measures, house values hit new highs.







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Condo Value Trends

Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square
Foot Values by Quarter

By both measures, condo values also hit new highs in early 2017.





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The Luxury Home Market

Median Sales Prices by Quarter

Luxury homes, i.e. the top 10% of sales - detached houses selling for $1,850,000 or more - are the exception to the general appreciation trends noted above. The median sales prices in this market segment have fallen since peaking in 2015. However, please remember that too much should not be made of the data of a single quarter until substantiated over a longer term: The big, sudden drop in Q1 2017 may turn out to be an anomaly. Q2, which began in April, is typically the most active quarter for luxury home sales and we will know more after it ends.





Year over year, luxury home inventory has been increasing, while sales have dropped a little, and the number of listings expiring without selling has jumped.





Comparing median asking prices to sales prices to the prices of listings that are pulled off the market without selling, one sees there are significant differences between the non-luxury home market and the luxury segment. Overpricing appears to be a much bigger issue for the most expensive home listings than in the general market.



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Overviews: Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Home Sales

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda, San Francisco, California
& U.S. Long-Term Median Home Price Trends






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Home Sales with and without Price Reductions,
Sales Prices to List Prices, Days on Market & Expired Listings


This chart looks at the overall real estate market in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda, and illustrates the differences between those listings buyers react to quickly and positively, and those listings that have to go through price reductions before selling, or do not sell at all. There are a variety of important issues at play, including preparation and marketing, but correct pricing is usually the critical issue.



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Various Economic Indicators
That Can Impact the Market


Bay Area Employment & Unemployment Rates

The lowest unemployment rates in 15 years, but the picture in hiring and
new high-tech hiring in particular, is a bit unclear with recent shifts up and down.






S&P 500 Stock Index

Maybe some irrational exuberance at play since the election?




Housing Affordability

Perhaps the biggest social, economic and political issue
in the Bay Area right now: Remaining close to all-time lows

In this chart, Diablo Valley and Lamorinda affordability ratios
are probably most similar to those of Marin County.




Mortgage Interest Rates

Up after the election, down since the new year began,
rates remain extremely low by historical standards



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Era of Construction

Just as house construction in San Francisco was starting to tail off around 1950 (house construction, not condo construction), it was starting to surge in Diablo Valley and Lamorinda, effectively creating their communities.



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Many more analyses can be found in previous reports further down on this webpage.

All our Bay Area analyses: Paragon Market Reports

------------------------------------------------------------

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group

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Preliminary Indications of Direction for the 2017 Market

April 2017 Report

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Year-over-Year Comparisons of Q1 Statistics

Chart 1: General Market Overview




Chart 2: Luxury Home Market Overview



Q1 is the quarter of the year with the least number of closed sales, so too much should not be made of its data, but we have summarized annual Q1 dynamics for the past 4 years in the 2 charts above. The general residential market (chart 1) in 2017 seems to have gotten an early and strong start, and the median sales prices for both condos and houses in the Diablo Valley & Lamorinda region hit new peaks.

Indications for the luxury market (chart 2) are a bit different, and it appears to have softened significantly more than the more affordable home segment: Generally speaking, this is a common dynamic across the Bay Area. More high-end home listings are coming on market, but fewer are selling, and more are expiring without selling. There also seems to be a considerable disconnect between the asking prices set by sellers, and the sales prices buyers are willing to pay. Pricing correctly is always important, but right now, it is particularly vital in the luxury home segment.

Much more will be known regarding the direction of the 2017 market after Q2 data is in: March through June is the most active selling season of the year. Remember that sales are a lagging indicator, i.e., transactions negotiated in March will not typically close until April or May (when we learn the details of the transactions and their final sales prices). This is illustrated in the first chart in the next section of this report.


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Market Seasonality: New Listings,
Listings Accepting Offers & Closed Sales






The first chart above illustrates the flow of inventory, offer negotiation and acceptance, and closed sales activity over the past 14 months. The second chart focuses on the intense seasonality of accepted offer activity over the past few years: It peaks dramatically in spring, as buyers jump on appealing new listings pouring on the market. Ultimately, it is accepted-offer activity that defines the heat of the market.

The 2 charts below illustrate seasonality by way of the intensity of bidding, or overbidding, as the case may be, and by average days on market. By these measures also, spring is clearly the most intense market of the year.





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Annual Median House Sales Price Trends

5 Selected Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Cities, since 2004




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When one steps back to look at annual trends, the picture almost always becomes clearer than with often fluctuating monthly or quarterly data. We looked at annual trends by a variety of classic real estate statistical measures in our March newsletter, which can be found further down on this webpage.


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Interest Rates

Constantly shifting economic and political factors continue to affect rates: Mortgage interest rates are significantly up since the election, fluctuating up and down since the year began, but still far below historical norms. This is a factor everyone is watching carefully because of its potential impact on affordability, already a big issue in the Bay Area.




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All our reports can be found on our redesigned website: Paragon Market Reports

Using, Understanding and Evaluating Real Estate Statistics

If you will forgive a little celebrating on our part: In the past 4 quarters, Paragon was the #2 brokerage for home sales and luxury home sales in the greater Danville-Alamo-Blackhawk-Diablo area. During this period, of the top 10 brokerages, Paragon had the highest average sales price, and, by far, the highest average sales per agent in the area - 90% above the next highest brokerage. (Sales reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics) Our Diablo Valley and Lamorinda office has been open about 20 months, and we love being here.

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These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision.

© 2017-2018 Paragon Real Estate Group