Napa County Real Estate

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October 2020 Report

Our hearts go out to so many of our friends and neighbors grievously affected by these terrible fires, and our gratitude is too deep for words to those fighting the fires and assisting those needing help. We continue to issue market reports during these times of such difficulty simply because there are still people who have to make decisions regarding the purchase and sale of homes.

The table below compares Q3 statistics across 5 years.

Median sales prices can rise because of increases in fair market value – i.e. buyers are paying more money for the same home (supply and demand) – and/or because buyers are purchasing larger, more expensive houses, often in more expensive communities. Both dynamics are currently at play, but it is certain that affluent and very affluent buyers have made up a dramatically increasing percentage of the demand in Napa County and most other Bay Area markets.

The average size of Napa County houses sold in Q3 2020 increased about 10% on a year-over-year basis.

Long-Term Trends in Median House Sales Price

through YTD 2020

Annual percentage changes in median house sales price: The 2020 YTD percentage will almost certainly change, one way or another, by the time full-year sales data is in.

Luxury Home Sales by Quarter

Median House Sales Price Trends by City

Selected Supply & Demand Indicators

Mortgage Interest Rates

In September, we also updated our semi-annual Survey of Bay Area Markets.

Napa County Real Estate

September 2020 Report

In the context of the terrible fires we've seen in recent weeks, a real estate report may seem trivial, but we have clients still trying to make buying and selling decisions, and we feel it remains our job to try to deliver straightforward data on the market.

The first chart: Comparing the second week of August (before the fires) and the fourth week (deep in the crisis), the number of listings that went into contract in Napa fell by a handful, but, as illustrated below, in the full month, August hit a multi-year high. Sonoma County fell a little more in late August - a 22% decline - but its activity is already starting to tick back up.

Market indicator: Percentage of listings accepting offers within the month - a clear illustration of a very high demand market.

Year-to-date house sales volumes and median house sales prices in selected communities of Napa and Sonoma Counties:

Median house sales prices around the Bay Area in summer 2020:

Long-term median house sales price trends:

A breakdown of home sales by era of construction:

A snapshot measure of how many listings were typically active on any given day of the specified month: The number of listings on the market remains low by historical standards.

Active listings on the market in late August broken out by price segment: As illustrated, Napa has an outsized inventory of very, very expensive homes and estates. These numbers change constantly with new market activity.

Active luxury home listings in late August, broken out by city: As compared to the size of its overall market, St. Helena has one of the biggest percentages of luxury and ultra-luxury home listings in the Bay Area.

Bay Area luxury home markets: Year-over-year summer sales volumes and percentage changes. Napa County saw a substantial 67% increase in sales over the number in summer 2019.

Market indicator: Price reductions are low, another illustration of high buyer demand.

The lower the Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of listings. Most of the market remains firmly in "seller's market" territory by this measure: Demand for homes under $1,500,000 is particularly strong. Though higher price homes have significantly higher MSI figures, the readings are actually quite low by historical standards.

Napa County Real Estate Report

August 2020

Median House Sales Price Trends -

Long-Term

Because the county does not have that many sales in any given month and its range of sales prices is so wide, Napa's monthly median sales price is prone to anomalous fluctuations. Which is why we prefer the 6-month rolling average used in the chart below. However, for what it is worth, the Napa County median house sales price in July was $782,000, just the slightest tad lower than its all-time monthly high of $785,000 in September 2019.

Supply & Demand

Active listings, new listings, listings accepting offers and closed sales volume

Inventory relatively low and demand is soaring

Bay Area Markets Comparison

This table ranks each county by the percentage of active listings going into contract in June/July 2020 - a standard statistic of market heat - compares it to the same period of last year, and then rates the scale of the year-over-year change.

Many counties are seeing dramatically increased demand over last year, with Napa seeing one of the biggest jumps.

One reason why its June/July 2020 percentage-of-listings-accepting-offers is substantially lower than most other counties is its respectively, very high inventory of expensive homes for sale. Right now, approximately 45% of Napa's active listings are priced $1,500,000 or more, but in the last year only 14% of sales have been in that price range: a very large imbalance. More expensive homes, on average, take much longer to sell due to the smaller pool of prospective buyers. This is the case despite the recent surge in demand for such homes (illustrated later in the report).

Higher-Price & Luxury Homes Accepting Offers -

a Year-over-Year Comparison

A dramatic spike in demand over levels seen

over the past 2 years

Closed Sales Volume by Month,

Homes $1,250,000 & Above

Selected Indicators

Price reductions and

months supply of inventory

Napa County Real Estate

Spring 2020 Report

Supply & demand statistics, sales and values by city, the luxury home market, and the dwindling effects of COVID-19

June 2020

Depending on the statistic, analyses will reflect Napa County alone or the combined markets of Napa and Sonoma Counties. Generally speaking, market activity – as measured by the number of listings going into contract – continued to pick up rapidly in May, bouncing back from the steep plunge following the first shelter in place orders. However, activity in May, which is typically among the busiest selling months of the year, remained below May 2019. Still, with the easing of shelter in place, as well as the market learning to adjust to new circumstances, it is expected the recovery will continue to surge closer to normal. In fact, based on the strength of buyer demand, some analysts believe the coming months may be busier than in 2019, as sales activity that would have occurred in spring gets pushed into summer instead.

The Napa County median house sales price dropped in May 2020, but it is based on a very low number of sales across a very wide range of sales prices, so should not be taken too seriously unless substantiated over the longer term.

Interest rates hit another historic low at the end of May.

Note: Any statistics derived from closed sales – such as median sales prices, sales volume and days on market – reflect the state of the market 3-6 weeks ago when the offers were negotiated and accepted. They are lagging indicators, and May closed-sales data to a large degree reflects the much weaker market in April.