< Back to market reports

Noe Valley-Eureka (Castro) Valley-Cole Valley Home Prices & Trends

House and condo prices and market trends for San Francisco Realtor District 5, which encompasses the central city neighborhoods of Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (including the Castro), Dolores Heights, Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle
A wide variety of other Paragon reports can be found here

Note that price trend data below is sometimes for MEDIAN sales prices and sometimes for AVERAGE sales prices. They are different measurements and will often produce different results.




Link to City Map Showing All San Francisco Neighborhoods


Home Sales by Price Range
A snapshot of annual District 5 sales by price segment.






These 2 charts are overviews of all Realtor District 5 home value trends






These next 3 charts break out some of the major neighborhoods within District 5








Dollar per Square Foot by House Size




Many more market-dynamics charts can be found below.

District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview.

District 5 soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the financial markets meltdown in September 2008. Values fell 15% to 20% very quickly and then stabilized in 2009 and 2010. With the surge in high-tech buyers in 2011-2015 (among other economic factors), activity in this district picked up dramatically - indeed, buyer competition became ferocious. Median price appreciation finally began to level off in 2016, then the 2017 market turned crazy hot again.

Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 2000 transactions totaling over $2.7 billion in sales in District 5.


Overall District 5 Statistics

The next series of statistical charts pertain to the entire district. Following them, are analyses specific to different segments of the market there.

Active Listings on the Market

The number of listings on the market at any given time is determined by 3 big factors: seasonality, buyer demand and the motivation of prospective sellers to sell.





Number of Listings Accepting Offers (Going under Contract)


This basic measure of market activity depends upon both buyer demand and the number of listings available to purchase. Above and beyond seasonality, a big surge in condo listings accepting offers may indicate that a new development came on market during that period.





Median Home Sales Prices

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It typically conceals a large variety of different prices in the underlying individual sales, and can also be affected by other factors besides changes in home values, such as seasonality and large changes in the distressed, luxury-home or new-construction segments of the market. Short-term fluctuations are much less meaningful than longer-term trends.





Average Dollar per Square Foot on Sale


This statistic is based upon interior living space and doesn’t include garages, basements, decks, patios or rooms built without permit.Typically, square footage figures come from appraisals or tax records, but square footage can be measured in different ways and the figures can be unreliable. Also, a fair percentage of listings don’t even report square footage so the statistic is only based on those sales that do. These values should be considered very general statistical approximations.





Percentage of Sales Sold over List Price


Large percentages of sales in which the price is bid up above asking price usually signifies spirited buyer competition for new listings. Before 2012, this percentage typically ran between 30% and 40% of sales. It has climbed to new heights in recent years. This is another statistic that is affected by seasonality: Higher percentages in spring and autumn, lower during the summer and winter holidays.





Median Percentage of Sales Price to List Price


This statistic is becoming distorted because many SF listing agents are underpricing, and sometimes egregiously underpricing, their listings. Still, sales prices consistently well above asking prices are a classic sign of a very hot real estate market.





Average Days on Market


Under 30 days is considered a fast moving market. Below 20 days reflects extremely high buyer demand for new listings. This figure would be even lower except that many San Francisco agents prefer to show their listings for 10 to 14 days before the seller even reviews offers, so as to fully expose the home to as many prospective buyers as possible and thus maximize the potential of a bidding war.





Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)


MSI measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of listings for sale at current rates of market activity. Typically, under 3 months of inventory is considered a seller’s market; 2 months or less signify an extreme seller’s market.





Average & Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot

The statistics of value in the charts following -- average and median sales prices and average dollar per square foot -- can change depending on a number of market factors (seasonality, inventory available to purchase, the average size of the homes sold within a given time frame), but the general price trend is clearly and dramatically upward. High demand plus low supply equals higher prices. When neighborhoods are grouped together below, it is because they generally share similar market values in particular property types. Quarterly and annual statistics, because of the much greater amount of data, are typically more reliable than (fluctuating) monthly stats -- but all statistics should be considered generalities.


Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (Castro), Dolores Heights: House Values by Year 

These neighborhoods within District 5 generate the largest number of sales.






Cole Valley, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Corona Heights: House Values by Year

This "greater Cole Valley" and Clarendon Heights area has a very distinctive neighborhood feel and houses here are on average much larger than in the Noe Valley-Eureka Valley neighborhoods, so their average sales price is much higher, but since, all things being equal, a larger house will sell for a lower dollar per square foot value, that value statistic typically runs lower.






Condo Values in Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury Heights; Buena Vista & Duboce Triangle

These District 5 neighborhoods are grouped together because their condo values are similar, though as is almost always the case in San Francisco, they include a wide variety of property sizes, styles and quality.





Noe Valley (Only) MEDIAN Home Sales Prices & Dollar per Square Foot






Glen Park House Values by Year

Though adjacent to Noe Valley, home values in Glen Park are not as high. Glen Park statistics fluctuate more than some other neighborhoods because the sizes of houses here vary so widely -- thus the statistics vary simply based upon what houses happen to sell within a given time period.








2-4 Unit Building Sales in District 5

District 5 is filled with buildings of 2 to 4 units, though as time has passed more and more of them have been turned into TICs and condominiums (which increases the value of the properties).




Luxury Home Sales

Higher end home sales in the Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Cole Valley and associated neighborhoods of Realtor District 5 dramatically surged in 2011 - 2015. Though prices are still lower than in the old-prestige, northern neighborhoods such as Pacific and Presidio Heights, this area is playing a greater and greater role in luxury home segment. High-tech buyers are definitely playing a major role in this dynamic.









 


All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Copyright Paragon Real Estate Group 2017