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© Compass 2021 ¦ All Rights Reserved by Compass ¦ Made in NYC
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under
multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075,
1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material presented
herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable
but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without
notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square
footage are approximate. Equal Housing Opportunity.
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San Mateo County Real Estate |
Sales Climb Rapidly to End 2020 & a Strong Start to the 2021 Market. |
Our January report focused mostly on 2020’s annual statistics. This report will put most of its attention on quarterly and monthly indicators, which better illustrate changes occurring as 2020 progressed and 2021 began. In January, new listing activity started to pick up quickly after the typical annual low hit in December. And the numbers of listings going into contract and of listings closing sale in the month were both up approximately 37% from January 2020.
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As is the norm, new listing activity began to pick up in January, after hitting the usual, annual low point in December. The number of new listings coming on market in January was up about 34% over January 2020. |
The number of active listings on the market typically climbs rapidly through spring. In January, inventory was running about 48% higher than in January 2020. |
Month by month, year-over-year comparison of home sales volumes - illustrating the initial pandemic crash in activity followed by the market rebound that saw monthly sales volumes climb well above the levels of the previous year. |
In 2020, year-over-year sales of homes $3 million and above saw a significant increase, while the sales volume of homes below that threshold actually declined a little. However, neither statistic does justice to the rapid acceleration in market activity occurring in the second half of the year. Big jumps in high-price home sales were common around most of the Bay Area last year after the pandemic hit.
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The number of price reductions has dropped rapidly from the peaks it hit in late summer, early autumn. |
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San Mateo County Real Estate |
A Strange Year Begins Winding Down
December 2020 Report |
Though Covid-19 upended many normal seasonal trends this year, the market did begin its typical “holiday season” slowdown in November - however activity remained well above levels of last year. It is unknown how the latest pandemic circumstances may affect the market in December, which is usually by far the slowest month of the year. More importantly, we hope you and your loved ones stay safe and well during this challenging holiday season. -------------------------------------------- This first chart tracks percentage changes in median house sales price since 1991. It is based upon the Q1 2000 price being indexed to 100: A reading of 50 signifies a median price half that in Q1 2000; 200 means the price has doubled since then. In early 1991, the San Mateo County median house price was about $300,000; it is currently running about $1,700,000. |
The San Mateo monthly median house sales price often fluctuates without great significance. The longer-term trend (as seen in the chart above) is more important than short-term changes up and down. |
Q3 2020 median house sales prices (and the SF median condo price) by county: |
The biggest year-over-year increases in dollar volume sales since the pandemic hit occurred in counties where population densities are lower. |
Highest priced listings on the market in early November, and the highest priced sales May through October 2020, by Bay Area County. |
As is typical, the number of new listings plunged in November. In the first week of December - not illustrated on this chart - new listing activity ticked back up from the short Thanksgiving week, but remained well below pre-November numbers. December is usually the month with the lowest number of new listings coming on market.
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The total number of active listings saw a corresponding drop in November. |
Market activity as measured by the number of listings going into contract, though dropping in November, was 30% higher than in November 2019.
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The number of listings reducing their prices has run somewhat higher than normal since the pandemic hit. |
4 charts and tables on the San Mateo County and Bay Area luxury home markets. |
Annual median sales prices for houses of 5+ bedrooms, 3+ baths, 3500+ square feet in the more expensive communities of the 4 most expensive counties.
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If you're looking for a home priced $5 million and above, these are the places where you will have the greatest choice of listings. You have a very wide choice without leaving the county.
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San Mateo County Real Estate |
November 2020 Report Mostly Focusing on City Market Dynamics |
The long-term median sales price chart below is similar to those for counties around the Bay Area - a significant spike in median house prices since the pandemic struck in early spring. (Generally speaking, Bay Area condo markets have not seen comparable increases in prices.) As mentioned before, recent jumps in median house prices have been driven not only by appreciation in fair market value, but by large increases in expensive home sales. Affluent buyers have made up a significantly larger percentage of Bay Area home purchases since the pandemic hit.
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The market typically starts a big slowdown in mid-November, running through the mid-winter holidays, until it begins to wake up in mid-January: New listings and sales plummet, and listings pulled off the market soar. Higher-price segments normally see the most dramatic plunges in mid-winter activity.
This year, the pandemic upended seasonality: Spring, usually the strongest selling season, saw a crash in activity; summer, which typically slows down - especially for luxury home sales - saw extremely high demand, particularly at the high end; and the heated summer market ran right into autumn, with most county markets unfazed by the terrible fires. We suspect late Q4 will see a slowdown, but remain more active than in past years. |
Luxury Home Sales by Month |
Prices & Market Dynamics by City |
Following is a series of analyses that look at city sales volumes and median sales prices, luxury home sales, listings for sale, and a few standard measurements of supply and demand. Note that very expensive homes often see softer dynamics - the pool of buyers is much smaller, and overpricing more common for these very special properties - but this is not always the case. |
Regarding the next chart: Percentages of 50% or more would typically be considered to reflect a high-demand market. Over 60% signifies very high demand, or as it climbs, extremely high demand. As mentioned before, very high price markets often, but not always, see softer supply and demand indicators. |
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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.
These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
