The 2020 "Stanford Circle" Real Estate Market

Though Covid-19 upended many normal seasonal trends this year, the market did begin its typical “holiday season” slowdown in November. It is unknown how the latest pandemic circumstances may affect the market in December, which is usually by far the slowest month of the year.  

If the Stanford Circle was its own separate county, its median home sales price would about twice that of San Mateo and San Francisco Counties. 

Highest priced listings on the market in early November, and the highest priced MLS home sales occurring May through October 2020, by Bay Area County. 

As illustrated in the next 3 charts, new listings coming on market, the total number of active listings, and the number of listings accepting offers, all dropped in November, which is a typical seasonal trend. 

The below chart measures demand as compared to the supply of listings available to buy, i.e. the percentage of active listings going into contract during the month. 

Many listings, especially those of luxury homes, are typically pulled off the market in late November and/or December to wait out the holiday season slowdown. We will see if there is a big December spike this year, as there was in 2019. 

Annual median sales prices for houses of 5+ bedrooms, 3+ baths, 3500+ square feet in the more expensive communities of the 4 most expensive counties. 

If you're looking for a home priced $5 million and above, these are the places where you will have the greatest choice of listings.  The Stanford Circle cities constitute the largest concentration in northern California. 

The number of active residential listings on the market is slightly higher than at any other time in the past 2 years. 

The number of listings going into contract has continued to tick up. The August decline was probably due to the terrible fires which started in mid-month. 

In the following 3 charts, several high-price cities in San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties outside the "Stanford Circle" have been included, simply to add further context to the greater market for very expensive homes. 

The table below compares Q3 statistics across 4 years.

Q3, summer, typically sees a slowdown from the more heated selling season of Q2, spring, but the pandemic flipped seasonal market trends upside down. 

Across the Bay Area, the average size of houses sold has jumped, which is a factor in increasing median sales prices. Affluent and very affluent buyers have made up a significantly increasing percentage of the demand, especially during the rebound from the pandemic's initial effect on markets. On average, buyers are purchasing larger houses in more expensive communities. 

Annual percentage changes in median house sales price: The 2020 YTD percentage will almost certainly change, one way or another, by the time full-year sales data is in. 

Changes in median sales price and median dollar per square foot values do not always correlate exactly. For example, all things being equal - which they rarely are - a larger house will sell for a higher price, of course, but a lower dollar per square foot value. 

Median sales prices can sometimes fluctuate without great relation to changes in fair market value, especially in very expensive markets with relatively few sales across a very wide range of sales prices. 

Sales of the highest priced homes have soared in most markets around the Bay Area and adjacent counties. Which doesn't mean that they all sell at whatever prices sellers hope for. The Stanford Circle market is the most expensive in the Bay Area. 

In September, we also updated our semi-annual Survey of Bay Area Markets.